The whole notion that after three years of government—in fact, the LNP has been in power for nine years—the process of an election can be reduced to a highly confected and tightly managed 4–6-week performance piece—a campaign—is in and of itself damaging to the notion of democratic accountability.
Tim Dunlop, at meanjin.com.au
Finally, finally, finally Election Day is here!
And not a moment too soon. These last six weeks has done very little to convince anyone of the ‘strength’ of Australia’s federal democracy. Indeed, if the media’s performance is to go by, it’s actually hurt our democracy.
Nothing better illustrates this than the utter shambles that was the ‘Great Debate’ run by Channel 9. The shout-fest was pillared, rightly, as an unwatchable, sad, indictment on the state of Australian political journalism.
I can have some sympathy for Sarah Abo. She seemed completely out of her depth at times as Morrison’s bulldozer was in full effect, but what I can have no sympathy for was the seasoned ‘journalists’ on the panel asking asinine question after asinine question and the ridiculous format of only allowing 60 seconds to answer. No robust debate can come from one minute responses, and thus no robust debate was had, until it just fell into a slanging match of who can talk over the top the loudest.
Contrast that with Channel 7, who had seasoned Press Gallery journalist Mark Riley (a person whose idea of journalism I, at times, despise) holding sway over what was actually a good debate.
And then we move to the travelling press packs who seemed more concerned with playing ‘let’s catch Albo out’ then actually doing their job, ie: being a journalist. I want journos to ask tough questions, but deliberately trying to catch your subject out might look good when dealing with rouge tradies on A Current Affair, but in the midst of an election campaign just looks cheap. As Laura Tingle put it, “Sorry. But this is embarrassing for my profession.”
But in reality this election has been a story of the polls, despite everyone swearing off them after 2019. The campaign started with some closing of Labor’s lead to the Coalition, before moving back out to Labor, and then the obligatory tightening up in this final week.
Resolve was first out of the blocks this week with a 52%-48% 2PP ALP lead, Essential then followed with a 48%-46% ALP lead with 7% undecided on their 2PP+ measure (rounding accounts for the odd maths here), with Ipsos following on Thursday with 53%-47% ALP lead, Roy Morgan dropping yesterday mirroring Ipsos with 53%-47%, and finally Newpoll dropping in their usual late Friday before polling day fashion, showing exactly the same – a slight narrowing to 53%-47%. They are nothing if not consistent.
If the polls are right, and we look at somewhere like a 53% ALP 2PP lead, then Labor is looking at a slim, but workable, lower house majority.
The issue here is nationwide swings are never uniform and it’s likely that, later tonight, we will see Queensland and Western Australia coming into play. Simply put, if the Coalition can hold in Queensland and break the national trend in outer Sydney and Melbourne, and limit the damage in Western Australia, they could hold onto power, albeit in a close minority. Katter will always back them which might get them to 74 or 75, needing only one or two of the other crossbenchers to support them.
In any case, this is looking to be the closest election since… 2019?
Seats to watch
NSW
There’s a lot going on in NSW. I, obviously, have a vested interest in the Hunter (3.0%, ALP) and with the retirement of longtime member Joel Fitzgibbon, it’s going to be an interesting one to watch. A lot has been made locally of trying to tie Labor to the Greens and, by default, mine closures and mining jobs. My feel is that this will resonate highly in the electorate so the question is is it enough to win this for the Nationals? Time will tell, but Hunter becoming the most marginal seat in the country after this election would not surprise me.
Elsewhere the western Sydney seats are probably the most interesting: Macquarie (0.2%, ALP), Greenway (2.8%, ALP), Parramatta (3.5%, ALP), Ried (3.2%, LIB) and Banks (6.3%, LIB) are all seats I’ll be watching. Banks was subject to very hard lockdowns in late 2021 and it will be interesting to see if that anti-LIB sentiment locally crosses the State-Federal divide.
The other seat of interest is Gilmore (2.6%, ALP) on the NSW south coast. Labor won it surprisingly in 2019, and has a strong local member in Fiona Phillips, but faces a very strong challenge in former state MP Andrew Constance, who came to national attention by failing to support the PM during the 2020 bushfires. This could be a seat that goes against the statewide swing and delivers for the Coalition
Queensland
Much ado about nothing, or where the Coalition mounts its comeback? Queensland is either in play, or it isn’t, but what we can say is that outside of the South-East corner (metro Brisbane, specifically) don’t expect much to change up north. I have a bit of a vested interest in Capricornia (12.4% LNP), but it would take a major miracle for Michelle Landry to lose her seat – if that happens, we could be witnessing a landslide ALP victory nationwide. And let’s face it, that’s pretty unlikely.
Lilley (0.6%, ALP), Blair (1.2%, ALP) and Moreton (1.9%, ALP) are all in play for the LNP to steal from Labor. There’s an interesting three-way contest in Griffith (2.9%, ALP) with the Greens mounting a bit of a fight to grab a second seat in the House. Brisbane (4.9%, LNP) is also an interesting three-way race, although less likely to produce an upset.
Dickson (4.6%, LNP) is always a seat that comes in for scrutiny. Held by Peter Dutton since 2001, he came close to losing the seat in 2007, and was expected to be tight in 2019, however he recorded a swing towards him of 2.9% making this seat relatively safe. He’s nothing short of a divisive character, both within the Federal Liberal Party and the wider political sphere and has ambitions to be leader. A good campaign on the ground by Labor may scuttle those, however.
Victoria
From Liberal Party stronghold to the most progressive state in Australia, Victoria’s electoral transformation over the last few decades is the stuff of psephology legend. If Labor are going to form government after tonight, it will be in Victoria where it’s start will be made.
Corangamite (1.1%, ALP) has had a lot of Liberal Party resources thrown at it in the hopes of turning the seat blue. Likewise Dunkley (2.7% ALP), based in Frankston to the south of Melbourne, has seen more than its fair share of government front benchers. But, almost ironically, its the more blue ribbon areas of Melbourne that hold the most interest.
The fact that Kooyong (6.4%, LIB) and Goldstein (7.8%, LIB) are even up for discussion is a testament to how strange this election cycle has become. The rise of the ‘teal’ independent movement has led to some interesting battles, and forced the Liberals to spend money in seats they perhaps would rather they didn’t have to. Dr Monique Ryan has proved to be a formidable opponent for Josh Frydenberg and is in with a real shout of removing the Treasurer from his seat. That’s unlikely to play out, but it may make this seat very marginal indeed, and who knows, maybe there is a mood on the Toorak ground for change.
Goldstein has probably had the single worst campaign by a sitting member that I can recall. Simply put, Tim Wilson has treated his constituency with contempt throughout this campaign, and played school-yard tit-for-tat name calling games that are probably best not talking about. I don’t expect him to lose his seat, but I’m not going to shed a single tear should he do so.
Elsewhere, Chisholm (0.5%, LIB) is probably Labor’s best chance at picking up a seat, with Higgins (2.6% LIB) in play thanks to an interesting three-way contest with both Labor and the Greens thinking they can pick it up, and Casey (4.6%, LIB) receiving a lot of Labor’s attention.
Tasmania
It always seems to be the same two seats that come up for discussion every election and 2022 is no exception – Bass (0.4%, LIB) and Braddon (3.1%) will be in the spotlight later tonight. Labor picking up both these seats would plunge the Coalition into minority (all other results being equal), and set Labor up for a very interesting night. Lyons (5.2%, ALP) is the third seat that could prove pique interest tonight, but if Labor are in trouble in Lyons, the wider story will be elsewhere.
South Australia
The election of a Labor government at state level earlier this year halted the trend of incumbent governments winning elections during the COVID-19 pandemic and provided a thrust for the ALP in South Australia for the Federal election campaign.
Boothby (1.9% LIB) is the seat most in-play following the state result with Labor confident it can win the seat from the Coalition. Mayo (5.1%, CA), currently held by the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie, could be a fun one to watch with the Liberals running a tight campaign.
The real fun in South Oz is in the Senate. Two independent Senators are up for re-election, the most notable being well liked Senator Rex Patrick. Nick Xenophon is also contesting the Senate meaning the sixth and final Senate seat is up for grabs.
Western Australia
How highly the state Labor government is held in regard in the West cannot be understated. Mark McGowan’s popularity through the pandemic is the stuff other state Premiers can only dream about. At times, his approval rating pushed 90%. Add into the fact that the PM joined Clive Palmer’s ill-fated court battle over the state’s hard border and you get a climate that was not conducive to a strong campaign from the Coalition.
That view has softened somewhat over the course of 2022 and now there are less than a handful of seats that are seriously in play. In saying that, less than a handful of seats could easily decide this election.
Cowan (0.9% ALP) has changed due to a redistribution following the abolition of Stirling, making it nominally in play. Cowen has bucked the national trend before, Labor losing it in 2007 despite gaining office, but no one really expects a repeat performance.
Pearce (5.2% LIB) on the surface looks reasonably safe for the Liberals until you realise that this is the seat being vacated by former Attorney-General Christian Porter. It will be interesting to see how much that plays into the electorate’s thinking at the ballot box. If Pearce is in play, expect one or two more Labor gains in the state.
Hasluck (5.9%, LIB) is another of those seats that seem to be always in the discussion, but frankly, I’ll be surprised if Ken Wyatt loses his seat. In saying that, if there’s a big swing to the ALP, then everything’s on the table.
The Territories
Given that both the ACT and the NT have only ALP members in the House of Representatives for all five seats, it’s easy to pay little attention to what is happening in these parts of the country. All three seats located in Canberra are expected to be easily retained for Labor and and whilst the same is true in the Northern Territory, one quirk makes Lingiari (5.5%, ALP) just that bit more interesting: that is, the retirement of long serving member, Warren Snowdon, and his strong personal vote makes this a contest worth keeping a small eye on.
The action in the Territories is in the Senate, specifically the ACT Senate. Riding the wave of the ‘teal’ independants in the House races, former ACT Brumbies player David Pocock has mounted a strong challenge to break the status quo of one ALP, one LIB that has been a mainstay of Federal elections since the first ACT Senate election in 1975.
I’ve written before about the challenge of gaining that seat and the only poll that I’ve seen in the election, commissioned by Climate 200 (a Pocock donor), has Labor at 27%, the Libs at 25%, Pocock at 21%, the Greens at 12% and the UAP and Kim Rubenstein, the other high profile independent, each sitting on 6%. Preference flows are going to be very important and given the ACT’s high proportion of below the line voters, there is a good chance that the final makeup ends up as one LIB and Pocock gaining the second seat at the expense of Labor’s Katy Gallagher.
Labor are certainly concerned about this, so much so that they injected former Prime Minister Julia Gillard to campaign on Gallagher’s behalf in the last week of the campaign. The issue is that the Liberals are losing votes to the UAP (and a few to Pocock), and those UAP votes will likely swing back to them on preferences. Pocock’s bulk of votes is being drawn from the ALP and the Greens. The difference will be where those Green preferences flow upon exclusion from the count. If they flow overwhelmingly to Pocock, he could get elected at Labor’s expense.
Fascinating stuff, given Labor’s stranglehold on ACT politics for the past two decades.
When can we expect a result
That all depends. If there’s a strong swing (either way) we could get a result early, or we could wait until close to midnight.
If the swing is subtle, we could be waiting days until the final preference count is down before we really know where things stand.
As I said, it’s the closest election since 2019.
Join me on the 2022 Federal Election Live Blog from 6pm AEST, and don’t forget the Antony Green Drinking Game!